Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., delivered the most effective ad in California’s recent Proposition 50 redistricting campaign, with internal Democratic super PAC research showing it outperforming ads from California Gov. Gavin Newsom and former President Barack Obama.
According to tests run by Future Forward, the Democratic Party’s main super PAC, Ocasio-Cortez’s ad outscored both Newsom, the measure’s most visible champion, and Obama in the high-stakes fight.
The ad highlights both the party’s aggressive push to lock in new House seats and the rising national profile of a progressive lawmaker often at odds with her party’s establishment.
The findings are based on a private report obtained by Axios.
Future Forward tested voter reactions to 16 pro-Prop 50 ads, all backing a ballot measure that temporarily suspends California’s citizen redistricting commission and substitutes a Legislature-drawn congressional map projected to give Democrats as many as five additional U.S. House seats.
In an Oct. 21 email, the group’s data chief, Aaron Strauss, told Democrat operatives, “Of all the ads on our side, one stands out as the clear winner: AOC’s spot that connects the perhaps esoteric issue of redistricting to real-world impacts,” according to Axios.
Strauss reported that Ocasio-Cortez’s direct-to-camera ad increased support for Prop 50 by 5.1 percentage points, edging out a second-place Obama spot that raised support by 4.3 points.
Ads featuring Newsom and other Democrats, including Texas Rep. Jasmine Crockett and California Sen. Alex Padilla, performed less well.
In the ad, Ocasio-Cortez directly targets President Donald Trump’s redistricting push.
“Donald Trump is redrawing election maps to force through a Congress that answers only to him,” she says in the spot, arguing that stopping Trump is critical “for our healthcare, our paychecks, and our freedoms.
“With Prop 50, we can stop him.”
The campaign heavily ran her English- and Spanish-language versions online rather than on broadcast television.
Prop 50, approved earlier this month by roughly a 2-to-1 margin, amends the state constitution to replace the citizen commission’s congressional map with one drawn by Democrats in the Legislature through the end of the decade.
Nonpartisan experts have described the California map as an “aggressive Democratic gerrymander” that is expected to more than double the bias in the current lines, specifically targeting five Republican-held seats.
California Republicans and national GOP groups have filed multiple lawsuits accusing Newsom and legislative Democrats of sidelining voters who approved the independent commission and of using race to engineer safe Democrat seats.
The arguments are now backed in part by a Justice Department suit from the Trump administration, according to Reuters.
Ocasio-Cortez’s team has been positioning her for a possible presidential or U.S. Senate run in 2028, and Future Forward’s numbers suggest she can move voters even in Newsom’s home state, which carries more Democrat primary delegates than any other, and accounted for about 10% of the party’s total in 2024.
Newsom’s allies publicly dismissed the internal ad rankings.
Campaign spokesperson Nathan Click told Axios, “The governor is very grateful to all of the leaders from across the party who came together to help Prop 50 pass by a 20-point margin.”
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